8/10/13

Daily report 08-10-2013

Manos Chatzidakis
9:41 π.μ. (Πριν από 1 ώρα)


Market Comment

Greek stocks ended sharply higher in the Athens Stock Exchange on Monday, extending their rally for the third consecutive session. General Index posted another four-and-a-half-month high yesterday as a late surge led by bank stocks took it close to the 1,100-point level despite the open issues on the other side of the Atlantic.
NBG stock currently leads the rally on rumors of an imminent deal with Israeli funds for selling 50% of its real estate subsidiary “Pangaia”. The stock closed significantly higher (€3.90 vs €3.57 AthEx close) in the New York exchange last night signaling for a positive opening in today’s session. However we would see some profit taking near 1.100 levels as short term gains may tempt investors to write down some of their returns.

In the Spotlight

Greece/PDMA: Greece will auction 1 billion euros of six-month Treasury bills today.

Greece/Budget 2014:  The draft budget for 2014, tabled on Monday in Parliament, contains three positive messages regarding the course of the country’s economy: An end to the six-year recession, the consolidation of the primary surplus for 2013 to over 300 million euros and, crucially, plans for the country’s return to the markets next year.

The first draft, which has been forwarded to the country’s creditors for approval, provides for 0.6 percent growth next year along with a reduction in unemployment from the current level of over 27 percent to 26 percent.
The primary surplus, meanwhile, is estimated to amount to some 344 million euros or 0.2 percent of gross domestic product this year, up from the 2013 budget forecast for 0 percent, to climb to 2.84 billion euros or 1.6 percent of GDP in 2014.

Taxpayers will be asked to pay an additional 2.16 billion euros in taxes next year. Direct taxation will climb from 19.17 billion euros this year to 21.33 billion in 2014, while indirect taxation is expected to stay the same as this year, at 24.5 billion euros despite the further decline expected in consumption. Primary spending will be reduced next year by 2.77 billion euros, according to the draft budget.

With Greek debt dropping from 175.5 percent of GDP (321 billion euros) to 174.5 percent (319.4 billion) next year, the government hopes to secure a positive reception from markets, which it intends to return to in the latter half of 2014. Mr. Staikouras stressed that neither the amount nor the conditions of new Greek bonds have been decided yet, but added that the political decision to this end has been made.

Greece/ Arrivals: According to SETE, foreign tourist arrivals at Greek airports grew by 13% y-o-y in September 2013, while arrivals in the 9-month period of the year posted a 10.2% y-o-y increase reaching 11.4m. Foreign tourist arrivals at Athens International Airport reached 2.127m in the period January-September 2013 (flat y-o-y).

NBG: National Bank of Greece is just a step away from announcing a strategic agreement with a major US-Israeli fund that could reach as much as 1 billion euros according to press articles. The formal announcement is expected in the next few days, with the deal providing for the transfer of more than 50 percent of National’s property management subsidiary, Pangaia, to the US-Israeli fund, though the Greek lender will retain the management and control of the company.

The aim of the NBG management with this move is to raise its capital adequacy index to 10 percent, from 9.2 percent in the first half of the year. 

The group’s plans, after the successful completion of its recapitalization earlier this year, also include the sale of Astir Palace hotel in Vouliagmeni, southern Attica, (which is already in progress and has attracted significant investment interest), of Ethniki Insurance, etc. 

It will retain control of its Turkish subsidiary, Finansbank, which accounts for over 70 percent of its operations abroad, but will disengage itself from most other countries in Southeastern Europe.

HTO:  Romania seeks sale manager for stake in Romtelecom as the government plans to sale its 45% stake.  Bids for managing sale of minority stake in Romtelecom can be submitted by Nov. 7

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