Market Comment
Greek stocks ended
lower for the sixth continuous session on Monday, despite an initial positive
reaction in the wake of Moody's upgrading of Greece's economy. General Index
closed at 1,156.06, a 0.59 pct drop, after reaching 1,172.24 (+ 0.80 pct)
earlier in the day. During the last six sessions of the ASE, General Index
has registered losses totalling 4.82 pct. Turnover was at €92.30mn.
Main source of weakness was once again the banking sector (-1.56%) as
investors wait for final terms and conditions on which the ECB stress tests
will run in October.
Short term oversold
and foreign markets bounce may stabilise the market today. Selective interest
on industrial blue chips may keep the index positive at the end of the day as
investors focus on upcoming H1 results announcements in the following two
days.
In the Spotlight
Greece: According to press
reports, Brussels is considering stopping Troika’s operations in
overseeing the economic reforms in Greece in order to aid Athens in executing
its plans to strengthen the country’s economy in exchange for the
gradual reduction of the Greek debt.
Greece/Economic sentiment index: Institute
for Economic and Industrial Research (IOBE) said that Greece's economic
sentiment index dropped to 102.3 points in July against 103.7 in June,
largely reflecting a deteriorated climate in the construction sector
(employment).
Greece/PDMA: Greece will sell
€625mn of 26-W Treasury bills today. The yield in the previous auction
stood at 2.05%.
Motor Oil: The company
announced that it holds 88.5% stake of Cyclon Hellas
Mytilineos (Results 2Q/H1 2014): Mytilineos
is expected to announce its Q2/H1 tomorrow before market opens. We expect a
sequential improvement in EBITDA and Net Earnings on strong METKA
performance, flat Energy sector results while Metallurgy (Aluminium) is
starting to gain momentum. Despite the reduction in domestic energy demand
and the regulatory changes in ADMIE formula energy sector is expected to
post zero growth rates y-o-y in bottom line (Η1:€12mn)
due to capacity payments increases (79K/ΜW vs 44K/MW) effective from January
1st. We expect Metallurgy to post EBITDA €10mn and marginal
losses. On the Group level we expect H1 sales to land at €650mn (-12%),
EBITDA will reach €118mn (+26%) and net earnings at €24mn (+91%)
on lower financials. Focus on the CC deleveraging, developments in Energy
market, small PPC and Aluminium spot prices.
METKA (Results 2Q/H1 2014): METKA
will announce its Q2/H1 2014 results tomorrow
before the opening of the market. We look for a strong Q2 in terms of
EBITDA and net profits as the company accelerates the execution of EPC
projects across all regions. In Q2 METKA should post 10% increase in Sales,
13% in EBITDA and -22% on Net earnings due to €12.5mn
deferred tax booked 2Q:2013. Adjusting for DT we see net earnings up
by 30%. We point out that since Q1 no new EPC projects were added reducing
our estimated backlog to €1.3bn at the end of
Q2. On the positive side we expect resilient operating margins helped by
lower tax rate and rich cash position (Q1: €204m). Focus
on the conference call (same day 17:45 GR time) will be on future projects
award, participation in regional airports tender and business outlook in
Syria.
Conference call details:
¡
Greek participants +30 211180 2000
¡
UK participants + 44 (0) 800 3681063
¡
US participants + 1 866 288 9315
|
Mytilineos
|
Results H1 2014 (Estimates)
|
||
|
In
thous. euro
|
2013
|
2014
|
Δ
|
|
Sales
|
730,799
|
650,000
|
-11.1%
|
|
Q2
|
371,755
|
305,420
|
-17.8%
|
|
EBITDA
|
93,869
|
118,000
|
25.7%
|
|
(% Sales)
|
12.84%
|
18.15%
|
+531 bps
|
|
Q2
|
44,514
|
50,749
|
14.0%
|
|
(% Sales)
|
11.97%
|
16.62%
|
+464 bps
|
|
Net Income
|
12,537
|
24,000
|
91.4%
|
|
(%
Sales)
|
1.72%
|
3.69%
|
+198 bps
|
|
Q2
|
1,909
|
8,790
|
360.5%
|
|
(% Sales)
|
0.51%
|
2.88%
|
+236 bps
|
|
METKA
|
Results H1 2014 (Estimates)
|
||
|
In
thous. euro
|
2013
|
2014
|
Δ
|
|
Sales
|
289,930
|
360,000
|
24.2%
|
|
Q2
|
155,937
|
170,940
|
9.6%
|
|
EBITDA
|
45,287
|
58,000
|
28.1%
|
|
(% Sales)
|
15.62%
|
16.11%
|
+49 bps
|
|
Q2
|
22,346
|
25,280
|
13.1%
|
|
(% Sales)
|
14.33%
|
14.79%
|
+46 bps
|
|
Net Income
|
46,401
|
49,000
|
5.6%
|
|
(%
Sales)
|
16.00%
|
13.61%
|
-239 bps
|
|
Q2
|
30,303
|
23,560
|
-22.3%
|
|
(% Sales)
|
19.43%
|
13.78%
|
-565 bps
|
Autohellas (Results 2Q/H1 2014): Group
turnover in the first semester of 2014 reached €67.1 mil. from
€68.6 mil. in the respective period last year. Revenues from Short and
Long term rentals showed, for the first time in the last 4 years, a marginal
increase of 0.45%. Increased tourist arrivals during Q2 of 2014 with
the addition of market share increase led into a substantial increase in
short term rentals by 26.5%, outbalancing the decrease in long term rentals.
The company proceeded in higher investment in new vehicles, which reached
€46mn from €22mn in last year's first semester in order to cover
the increased demand for the period July-September where 57% of total short
term volume takes place. Earnings after tax for the first half of 2014 showed
profits of €2.3mill versus losses of €2.3mill in last year's
respective period. Foreign subsidiaries' turnover represents 22.7% of
total group's turnover.
|
Autohellas
|
Results H1 2014
|
||
|
In thous. euro
|
2013
|
2014
|
Δ
|
|
Sales
|
68,558
|
67,129
|
-2.1%
|
|
Q2
|
39,562
|
39,014
|
-1.4%
|
|
EBITDA
|
30,204
|
31,173
|
3.2%
|
|
(% Sales)
|
44.06%
|
46.44%
|
+238 bps
|
|
Q2
|
17,864
|
19,257
|
7.8%
|
|
(% Sales)
|
45.15%
|
49.36%
|
+420 bps
|
|
Net Income
|
-2,364
|
2,270
|
196.0%
|
|
(%
Sales)
|
-3.45%
|
3.38%
|
+683 bps
|
|
Q2
|
2,409
|
3,349
|
39.0%
|
|
(% Sales)
|
6.09%
|
8.58%
|
+249 bps
|
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