By: Jeff Cox | Finance Editor
A stock market correction is approaching
the level of near certainty as Wall Street faces a major paradigm shift
in how to achieve price gains, according to a Goldman Sachs analysis.
In a market outlook that garnered significant attention from traders Monday, the firm's strategists called the S&P 500 valuation "lofty by almost any measure" and attached a 67 percent probability to the chance that the market would fall by 10 percent or more, which is the technical yardstick for a correction.
In a market outlook that garnered significant attention from traders Monday, the firm's strategists called the S&P 500 valuation "lofty by almost any measure" and attached a 67 percent probability to the chance that the market would fall by 10 percent or more, which is the technical yardstick for a correction.
The call comes amid an increasingly bifurcated times for market prognosticators.
Few if any expect the market to trade lower from current levels, but some, like Deutsche Bank's David Bianco and Jim Paulsen at Wells Capital Management, think upside gains will be limited due to volatility and the likelihood that the market will retreat following 2013's 29 percent gain.
(Read more: As bulls run, one Wall Street firm isn't so sure)
"We believe S&P 500 currently trades close to fair value and the forward path of the market will depend on the trajectory of profits rather than further expansion of the forward (price-to-earnings) multiple from the current 15.9 (times)," Goldman strategists said. "We forecast a modest price gain of roughly 3 percent to our year-end 2014 target of 1900."
The bullish news is that the firm sees the market index surging to 2,100 by the end of 2014 and then 2,200 by end of 2016, which would make a 20 percent gain in a three-year period.
Few if any expect the market to trade lower from current levels, but some, like Deutsche Bank's David Bianco and Jim Paulsen at Wells Capital Management, think upside gains will be limited due to volatility and the likelihood that the market will retreat following 2013's 29 percent gain.
(Read more: As bulls run, one Wall Street firm isn't so sure)
"We believe S&P 500 currently trades close to fair value and the forward path of the market will depend on the trajectory of profits rather than further expansion of the forward (price-to-earnings) multiple from the current 15.9 (times)," Goldman strategists said. "We forecast a modest price gain of roughly 3 percent to our year-end 2014 target of 1900."
The bullish news is that the firm sees the market index surging to 2,100 by the end of 2014 and then 2,200 by end of 2016, which would make a 20 percent gain in a three-year period.
Market pullback on the way: Goldman
The "Squawk Box" crew discuss
Goldman's call for a pullback in the markets, citing the S&P 500
now trades close to fair value and further P/E expansion will be
difficult to achieve.
"We believe S&P 500 trades close to fair value and the forward path will depend on profit growth rather than P/E expansion," Goldman said.
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