Αύξηση 4% στην καθαρή κερδοφορία του 2014 αναμένει η BETA από τη Jumbo ~ Naked Monk

22/9/14

Αύξηση 4% στην καθαρή κερδοφορία του 2014 αναμένει η BETA από τη Jumbo

12:45 μ.μ. No comments

Jumbo (BABr.AT, Under Review, Mkt cap EUR1,497m, Current EUR11.0)

Jumbo FY/Q4 2014 results preview: We see fiscal 2014e (to June 30) clean net profit to rise 4% y-o-y to EUR101.8m (+38% at a reported level), on mild home sales recovery, strong Cyprus and higher gross margin (+111bps to 53.4%)

Jumbo will release its FY/Q4 2014 (01/07/13-30/06/14) group results on September 25.

Key points

· On July 8, Jumbo pre-announced its fiscal 2014 group sales figure; up 8% y-o-y to EUR542m

· Domestic sales should rise 3% y-o-y to EUR426m, on our forecasts, driven by organic growth (two store rollouts) and L-F-L sales improvement (-0.5% y-o-y vs -4.4% in fiscal 2013) thanks to a more benign economic backdrop. This means, home operations will represent 79% of total group sales in fiscal 2014 vs 82% a year earlier

· We look for fiscal 2014 sales increases of 20% and 19% y-o-y in Cyprus (one new outlet) and Bulgaria to EUR65m and EUR41m, on higher penetration rates, making up 12% and 7% of group total

· Meanwhile, Romania (first two hypermarkets launched operations in November 2013/fiscal Q2 2014) sales should reach EUR10m, accounting for 2% of total, on our forecasts

· Adjusting for EUR24m one-offs (Cyprus deposit loss in fiscal 2013), we estimate group EBITDA and EBT rising 11% and 10% y-o-y to EUR148m and EUR132, respectively

· We see recurring (ex-one offs) fiscal 2014 net profits posting an increase of 4% y-o-y to EUR102m, up 38% y-o-y at a reported level

· Fourth-quarter (01/04/14-30/06/14) group sales grew by 9% y-o-y to EUR131m, +6% y-o-y excluding Romania’s EUR3.4m contribution (3% of total)

· In turn, we see home sales up 3% y-o-y to EUR104m, while Cyprus and Bulgaria should rise 19% and 16% y-o-y to EUR15m and EUR9m, maintaining a robust top-line momentum

· The gross margin is seen 77bps higher to 57.5% in Q4, owing to positive sales-mix effects and continuous product re-engineering

· Q4 group EBITDA (ex-EUR4.3m Cypriot deposit loss booked in Q4 2013) should advance 7% y-o-y EUR46m, while EBT is expected to rise 4% to EUR42m, adversely affected by lower financial income

· Finally, we estimate group recurring net earnings to advance 7% y-o-y to EUR32m in Q4 2014 (+25% y-o-y on a reported basis).

Valuation:

P/E (x) : 2015e 12.9x, 2016e 11.5x

EV/EBITDA (x): 2015e 9.4x, 2015e 8.3x

2014-17e EPS CAGR of 12%

Net cash: 2014e EUR100m, 2015e EUR135m, 2016e EUR181m

2015e sales per sq m:

Group EUR1,406 +2.6% y-o-y

Greece EUR1,558 (much higher in Athens vs rural areas) +2.2% y-o-y

Cyprus EUR2,563 +1.1% y-o-y

Bulgaria EUR536 +4.4% y-o-y

Romania EUR898 +5.1% y-o-y