Market Comment - In the Spotlight ~ Naked Monk

Manos Chatzidakis <mchatzidakis@beta.gr>

11 Ιουλίου 2014 - 9:41 π.μ.

Friday, July 11, 2014

Market Monitor

¢ Market Comment

The failure of Portugal’s Banco Espirito Santo to pay its dues earlier this week continued to radiate jitters across European markets on Thursday, inflicting fresh losses on most Greek stocks. The Greek bond issue’s mediocre performance did not help matters either. The index extended losses to 8.19 pct in the last five sessions while turnover remained relatively high at €160.56 million. General index is now negative since the beginning of the year by 0.96%.

Cumulative losses from the five day sell off and technical short term oversold picture may trigger a bounce today. Much will depend on foreign trend as it was the main reason for yesterday’s fall while volumes in the beginning of the session will give good indications regarding offer.

FTSE -25 shares: Returns since July 3^rd and distance from market lows (19/05)

FTSE-25	10/07	03/07	Δ(%)	19/05	Δ(%)
EUROBANK PROPERTIES	9.04	9.00	0.4%	7.68	17.7%
ATHENS WATER	9.59	9.60	-0.1%	8.65	10.9%
FFGROUP	31.96	32.41	-1.4%	23.01	38.9%
COCA COLA	16.62	17.00	-2.2%	16.64	-0.1%
MOTOR OIL	7.76	8.10	-4.2%	7.71	0.6%
METKA	12.20	12.83	-4.9%	11.11	9.8%
ΙΝΤRALOT	1.89	1.99	-5.0%	1.85	2.2%
VIOHALCO	4.24	4.48	-5.4%	3.94	7.6%
PPC	10.40	11.00	-5.5%	9.40	10.6%
TERNA ENERGY	3.76	3.98	-5.5%	3.57	5.3%
OLP	17.50	18.64	-6.1%	16.25	7.7%
MYTILINEOS	5.970	6.45	-7.4%	5.63	6.0%
JUMBO	10.90	11.83	-7.9%	10.40	4.8%
EUROBANK	0.350	0.380	-7.9%	0.33	5.7%
HTO	10.40	11.30	-8.0%	9.70	7.2%
HEL. EXCHANGES	7.69	8.38	-8.2%	7.60	1.2%
HEL. PETROLEUM	5.480	5.99	-8.5%	5.14	6.6%
OPAP	12.00	13.25	-9.4%	10.40	15.4%
MIG	0.44	0.49	-9.7%	0.39	13.7%
TITAN	22.00	24.60	-10.6%	19.52	12.7%
ELLACTOR	3.70	4.16	-11.1%	3.35	10.4%
GEKTERNA	3.42	3.87	-11.6%	3.10	10.3%
ALPHA BANK	0.62	0.71	-11.9%	0.60	3.5%
BANK OF PIRAEUS	1.50	1.74	-13.8%	1.39	7.9%
NBG	2.430	2.82	-13.8%	2.11	15.2%

¢ In the Spotlight

Greece: Greece's population dropped from 11.062 million on January 1, 2013 to 10.992 million on January 1, 2014 according to a Eurostat report. According to the European statistics agency's figures, there were 94,100 births in Greece in that period and 112,100 deaths leading to a net population reduction of 17,900. At the same time, immigration into Greece was reduced by 52,000. Greece, Italy and Germany were the three EU28 countries with the lowest percentage of births.

Greece/Bond sale: Amid negative conditions in the international financial markets (Portuguese securities sell-off) Greece raised EUR1.5bn from the sale of 3-year state bonds with an interest rate of 3.5% (coupon at 3.375%). That said, Greece was aiming at EUR3bn, while initial estimates were calling for a lower borrowing cost.

Still, this is Greece’s second tap of international bond markets this year since the financing markets lock-out in 2010, indicating that Greece is exiting crisis/returning to growth. Last April Greece sold a EUR3bn 5-year bond at less than 5% yield.

Greece/ Industrial production: Industrial production rose 1.8 pct in May this year, while manufacturing production increased by 1.2 pct in the month helped by higher production levels in computers, electronics and optical products, Hellenic Statistical Authority said on Thursday. The industrial production index rose 1.8 pct in May, compared with the same month last year, after a 5.5 pct decline recorded in May 2013. The statistics service, attributed this development to a 17.5 pct increase in mining production, an 1.2 pct rise in manufacturing production (base metals up 15 pct, computers, electronics and optical products up 122.9 pct, while beverage fell 14.3 pct, textiles were down 3.3 pct and clothing fell 11.9 pct).

Greece/ Unemployment: Unemployment is continuing to decrease slowly but steadily, as it contracted by 0.2 percent in April from the same month in 2013 to amount to a seasonally adjusted rate of 27.3 percent, according to data released on Thursday by the Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT). In March it had also stood at 27.3 percent.

HFSF: The HFSF published its Q1 ’14 financial statements. Key highlights are:

¡ As of end-March 2014, the fair value of the fund’s shares of the four systemic banks (Alpha, Eurobank, NBG and Piraeus) amounted to €25.1 bn (vs invested amount of €26.2 bn and current market value of the end-March holdings of €18.4 bn)

¡ As of end-March 2014, the fund’s available liquidity (in EFSF notes) amounted to €11.1 bn

¡ As of end-March 2014, the fair value of derivative financial liabilities solely comprised of the warrants issued by the HFSF and granted to the private investors that participated in the capital increases of Alpha, NBG and Piraeus stood at €3.357 bn vs their current market value of €2.76 bn

Aegean Airlines: In June 2014, Aegean Airlines and Olympic Air jointly moved over 1m of passengers, on the back of a 21% y-o-y traffic increase. In the same fashion, H1 2014 passenger traffic rose 16% y-o-y to a total of 4.3m (extra 600k passengers). Domestic passengers were up 19% y-o-y both in June and H1 2014. In turn, international traffic grew by 23% y-o-y.

Lamda Development: Subscription period for the share capital increase ends today.

Ellactor/Anemos: Anemos IPO ends today. We remind that priority subscription level for private investors is 1.240 shares. The price range stands at €1.70-1.97. The company will issue 20,667,000 new shares, while the proceeds will be used for the completion of 4 wind park, which are currently under construction.