14/5/13

The Cheapest Stock Markets In The World



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Arguably the most popular and reliable measure of stock market value is the cyclically-adjusted price-earnings ratios (CAPE).  

The CAPE ratio, which was introduced by Graham and Dodd and popularized by Robert Shiller, measures the stock market's capitalization against the average of 10 years' worth of earnings.

In a recent white paper, Cambria Quantitative Research's Mebane Faber examined the CAPE ratios of the stock markets around the world.

"We found most CAPEs averaged around 15‐20, bottomed out around 7, and maxed out around 45 (and a few made the United States bubble in the late 1990's look pathetic in comparison, like  Japan reaching a value of nearly 100 in 1989).

Here's a table from Faber's report ranking CAPE's from cheapest to most expensive:
world market shiller pe


We examined 32 countries with data from Global Financial Data and Morningstar, including   as   much data  as  we  could  find.    We  realize there is some bias in this study  (if  you  have  German  PE   data to  1685 or  French  to 1724  please  contact us),  but  we  did  the  best  with what we  have.  We utilized local real returns (and found dollar based real returns to be nearly identical) to net out the effects of  inflation.

We  examined  all  the  countries  on  a  yearly  basis  since  1980, CAPE levels, and future  returns.   The   sample  includes  approximately  10 counties in 1980,  20  in 1990,  and  30  by  2000.  The results  are   in the  table  below and largely confirm the US data. Buy low, sell high.

world cape

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